Tripura polls heading for photo-finish

The Tripura Assembly elections slated for February 16 seem poised for a photo-finish. Moreover, Thursday’s elections assume significance for more reasons than one. The most crucial factor is that right from the time Tripura achieved statehood, the Congress and CPIM have been bitter political foes but this time around they have ‘mended’ fences and entering the poll as alliance partners. How this new equation works with the electorate remains to be seen. BJP came to power in 2018 signifying that this will be the first assessment of the BJP government and its governance by the people of the State. From the BJP’s standpoint, this is going to be the first acid test for the ‘double-engine government’ theory, often propagated by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other party stalwarts.

A key challenge to this scheme of things would be an explanation on why the Saffron Brigade had to replace its chief minister before the first-term of the cabinet had ended and that too months shy of Assembly elections. Biplab Deb was replaced as the Chief Minister by Manik Saha, formerly from the Congress. The ruling party is yet to come up with a valid explanation for this change of guard. In an ominous signal, the sudden replacement has not gone well with the party’s state unit. Not only has this led to confusion, many CM aspirants were on tenterhooks and unhappy. This situation is not good for the BJP as it also indicates that things were not orderly in the past four years.

Adding to the worries, ‘Maharaja’ of Tripura-Pradyut Bikram Manikya, the chief of Tipra Motha, who is fiercely fighting for the rights of indigenous people, and demanding a separate Tipral, is likely to eat into the sizeable tribal vote bank that can make or break many a leading contender’s fate. BJP’s efforts to bring the ‘Maharaja’ on-board came a cropper. Mind you that there are 20 seats that are reserved for tribals and there are 15 other seats where the tribal population is more than 35 per cent of electorate. With this new equation of SC and Cha Bagan workers, Maharaja’s party’s vote share goes up to nearly 50 per cent. They will certainly be a significant player in almost 40 of the 60 seats.

Trinamul Congress, which fared badly during the recent by-polls, is not sitting idle either. Both Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee campaigned aggressively in Tripura and tried to woo the voters with various people-friendly initiatives and schemes that they implemented in Bengal. Mamata certainly has a huge appeal among Bengali voters but political analysts think that they may only cut into the non-BJP vote bank. Besides there is the anti-incumbency factor and a sizeable section is not happy with the BJP government’s performance.

If the analysis by veteran political observer Pranab Sarkar, are pointers then a tough fight is at hand. There is a likelihood of a cliffhanger or the eventual winner may do so with a whisker.